Promises vs Reality
Tracking campaign economic promises against actual data. Every claim linked to its source, every metric linked to official data.
End Inflation on Day 1
"We're going to end inflation and make America affordable again, it will go very fast."
CPI has risen 2.4% since inauguration. Inflation has not ended — it has continued at roughly the same pace.
Drill Baby Drill — Lower Gas Prices
"We will drill, baby, drill... and your energy costs will come tumbling down."
Gas prices have dropped modestly (-5.5%), though largely driven by global oil market dynamics rather than domestic production policy.
No Tax on Tips
"When I get to office, we are going to not charge taxes on tips."
Signed into law as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill. However, it is a deduction (not an exemption), capped at $25,000/year, phases out above $150K income (single) / $300K (married), only applies to occupations traditionally receiving tips, requires a Social Security number, and expires December 31, 2028. The standard deduction already eliminated federal income tax on tips for most low-income tipped workers — the primary beneficiaries are higher-earning tipped workers.
Biggest Stock Market Boom Ever
"We will have the greatest economy in history, even better than my first term."
S&P 500 is up ~14.8% since inauguration, though this continues a trend from the prior administration. Markets have been volatile around tariff announcements.
Reduce the National Debt
"DOGE will save at least $2 trillion. We're going to get this debt under control."
National debt has increased by ~$1.4 trillion since inauguration. DOGE spending cuts have been minimal compared to debt growth.
Tariffs — Foreign Countries Pay
"The tariffs are not being paid by us. They're being paid by China and these other countries."
Economists overwhelmingly agree tariffs are paid by domestic importers and passed to consumers. CPI data shows rising prices in tariff-affected categories.
Bring Back Manufacturing
"We're going to bring our jobs back, our manufacturing back."
Manufacturing employment has shown minimal change since inauguration. Most reshoring announcements are pre-existing or speculative.
📐 How We Track Promises
🟢 Kept: The data clearly supports that the promise has been fulfilled.
🟡 Partial: Some progress or mixed results. The data tells a nuanced story.
🔴 Broken: The data clearly contradicts the promise.
⚪ Too Early: Insufficient time or data to make an assessment.
Every promise includes the exact quote, date, and source. Every metric links to official government data. We present the numbers — you decide what they mean.